UK Edition
Sleepwalking into relegation: why history suggests Brighton are in big trouble
Relegated football teams usually fall into one of several sub-categories: the too-good-to-go-downs, the yo-yo clubs, and the select few who threaten Derby's record low points tally of 11. Then there are those who plunge into trouble from a clear blue sky - what, from this season onwards, might be termed ‘doing a Brighton’.
After beating Crystal Palace last month, the Sussex club were five points clear of the relegation zone with a game in hand. Since then they have lost all four of their league matches without scoring a single goal. After Tuesday night’s defeat to relegation rivals Cardiff City, they now find themselves just two points clear of the drop zone and with a daunting run-in, starting on Saturday at Wolves. Having not spent a single week in the bottom three all season - Cardiff have spent 17 - Brighton look as though they are sleepwalking towards relegation.
They would not be the first. In the Premier League's inaugural season of 1992-93 - a long-forgotten period of bad tackles, route-one football and Richard Keys - an even worse collapse took place. Back then, Brighton’s rivals Crystal Palace were so sure of safety going into the final week that after beating Ipswich Town they indulged in a lap of honour at Selhurst Park.
They were not mathematically safe but an eight-point lead and a superior goal difference over Oldham, who had three games left to play, looked like being a more than ample lead. As it happened Oldham won all three of their remaining matches, Palace drew and lost their last two, and went down on goal difference - despite picking up 49 points.
“It’s bizarre because we never felt like we were 100 per cent in a dogfight,” Palace's then captain, Geoff Thomas, told Telegraph Sport. “The week before we didn’t think Oldham would be anywhere near it. Their performances weren’t suggesting they’d be able to turn it around, but suddenly they had some fantastic results. I just don’t think we ever fully believed that we were really in trouble.”
The fear for Brighton is that some of their players might have recently experienced some of the complacency Palace felt 26 years ago. Alan Smith was the assistant manager of that Palace team and sees similarities. “I think something might have happened after they beat Palace a few weeks ago similar to what happened to us all those years ago. You just get a little bit too comfortable and once that momentum goes it’s extremely tough to get back.
“With us, I felt there was a psychological issue after we beat Ipswich. [Then manager] Steve Coppell always felt that we took our foot off the pedal a bit after that game.”
Two years after that crushing disappointment, Palace were relegated from the Premier League again. By this time, Smith was the manager, and again it looked like his side would be safe. After 27 games, Palace were 16th and enjoying the relative comfort of sitting three places above the relegation zone. However they ended up losing five of their last six games and despite finishing fourth from bottom with 45 points, they were relegated as the Premier League slimmed down from 22 to 20 teams.
Like Brighton now, Palace were hamstrung by a lack of goals - not helped by top scorer Chris Armstrong's suspension for testing positive for cannabis. "With Brighton and us you could never see where the next goal was coming from," Smith said. "So in the Bournemouth game last week [a 5-0 defeat], they went a bit gung-ho and got badly punished. It is really difficult because you start doing things you don’t really want to do, forcing it and desperately looking for goals.
"Another problem Chris Hughton has is that when you’re down at the bottom you can’t lose it and have a massive go at the players because everything is so fragile."
In 1995, Palace also had to contend with a fixture pile-up caused by reaching the semi-finals of both domestic cup competitions. Brighton too have been playing catch up in the last couple of weeks because of their run to the last four of the FA Cup. Though at least Hughton's side did not have to contend with a mid-season tour to Hong Kong, unlike Palace 24 years ago.
In what is surely the most ill-advised mid-season jaunt in Premier League history - with an honourable mention of West Brom's taxi-gate trip to Barcelona last year - Palace were forced by chairman Ron Noades to fly east 6,000 miles for a lucrative few days in April, at a time when their fixture list was already bursting at the seams.
"It was really the last thing we needed," Smith recalls. "It was crazy, hopeless. I tried to explain to Ron that we had a very young, inexperienced team and you can’t really be saying to players don’t go out and have a drink."
Hughton will not have distractions like these to contend with. But with players' minds and bodies tiring, what he needs above all is for his squad to stick together and fight - especially having seen first hand the consequences when this doesn't happen.
Ten years ago, Hughton was on the coaching staff of a divided Newcastle side that plummeted into danger from the relative comfort of 13th in February.
That side's goalkeeper Steve Harper says: "In a situation like ours or what Brighton are in now, it just depends on your players. It’s when you really need your dressing room to stand up, but it depends on what leaders you have."
Newcastle failed their test, being relegated on the final day of that season at Aston Villa. Brighton's own character examination starts at Molineux on Saturday.